The European Union confronts structural uncertainty across defence and digital sectors. Fiscal governance still relies on stability-oriented frameworks that cannot handle volatility. This paper argues that strategic autonomy requires integrating actuarial reasoning – quantification, pricing and systemic treatment of uncertainty – into existing EU budgeting and investment tools. The approach does not require new institutions or treaty changes. It requires a change in decision logic inside the Multiannual Financial Framework, the European Defence Fund, the Digital Europe Programme and the European Investment Bank. Empirical work in cyber-risk insurance, cyber-threat forecasting and development finance demonstrates that uncertainty can be modelled and priced. Actuarial governance emerges as a necessary foundation for credible European sovereignty.